Portfolio Check - BSPM CNAM CBPO CKGT
posted by The Traveller on Sunday, July 11, 2010

Biostar Pharmaceuticals (BSPM) is currently trading at $2.69, down 39.56% for the year and down 51.18% from its April 23 high at $5.51. The Trading China Tracker Score is 9 (Buy).

Biostar management provided guidance for fiscal 2010 for revenues of $80.0 to $82.0 million with net income of $18 to $20 million. The company started 2010 with a solid balance sheet, working capital of $24.1 million, and issued another bullish business outlook in May. There are no analysts covering Biostar Pharmaceuticals. The stock is currently valued at just 0.9x sales and 4.1x earnings for 2010 and my 12-month price target is unchanged at $7.80, based on 12x 2010e EPS of $0.65.

China Armco Metals (CNAM) is currently trading at $3.04, down 4.11% for the year and down 72.62% from its March 5 high at $11.10. The Trading China Tracker Score is 12 (Strong Buy).

Armco has repeatedly reaffirmed its financial guidance with revenues for the full year of 2010 exceeding $220 million with net income exceeding $12.0 million. The company stated "we are in the strongest financial position in our history and intend to put our capital to work to further fuel our growth." Operating cash flow in the first quarter of 2010 was $15.46 million, about one third of their total market capitalization. And growth is very likely to accelerate beyond 2010. Based on official company guidance, CNAM shares are currently valued at just 0.2x sales and 4x earnings, based on 15.9 million shares (including new shares issued in a private placement last April). There are no analysts covering the stock yet. My 12-month price target for CNAM is $11.25, based on 15x 2010e EPS of $0.75.

China Biologic Products (CBPO) has been holding up very well in this market. The stock is currently trading at $12.26, up 1.49% for the year and down just 14.75 from its May 19 high at $14.38. The Trading China Tracker Score is 8 (Buy).

Official company guidance for 2010 calls for revenue in the range between $142 million and $149 million and net income of $34 million to $36 million. China Biologic has been added to the NASDAQ Biotechnology Index (NBI), effective May 24, 2010. Both analysts following CBPO recommend buying the stock with an average price target of $18.50. I am raising my price target by $2 to $15.50 based on 10x 2010e EPS of $1.55.

China Kangtai Cactus (CKGT) is currently trading at $1.47, down 45.76% for the year and down 45.36% from its April 16 high at $2.69. The Trading China Tracker Score is 11 (Buy).

Kangtai is targeting revenue for the full year 2010 to be nearly $35 million, up over 30% from $26.5 million in 2009. Operating cash flow has been very strong with $7.75 million for 2009 and $4.53 million for the first quarter of 2010. There are no analysts following the stock and EPS estimates are difficult due to the complicated share structure and limited history of new business segments like cigarettes. I am using a cash flow per share projection of $0.45 for the year and a multiplier of 10 to reach my price target of $4.50 for the stock.

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12 PE for BSPM is going to be tough after the news that has come out. However I would like to see it at least a double from here which IMO is quite achievable.

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